That was the key message delivered by Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan – Chairman of FiinGroup and fb88– at theBriefing Session on the Vietnam Economic Outlook for 2025–2026, organized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on October 14 in Hanoi. The event gathered senior executives from commercial banks that are ADB’s key partners and clients in Vietnam. 

According to Mr. Thuan, commercial banks need to accelerate capital enhancement, not only through Tier-2 capital instruments such as bonds with maturities over five years, in line with Basel III implementation by 2030 under Circular 14 of the State Bank of Vietnam, but more importantly by strengthening Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) and Tier-1 capital. 

He emphasized that the average capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of Vietnam’s banking sector has fallen to around 11.6%, with state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) – including Vietcombank, BIDV, Agribank, and VietinBank – showing weaker capital buffers while continuing to pursue aggressive credit growth targets.    

Key Takeaways from the Presentation: 

🔹 Credit Environment: 

• Credit expansion continues to lean on wholesale/bond funding while refinancing risk persists – many borrowers still rely on short-term borrowing for long-term projects (e.g., renewables). 

• As global policy rates fall, costs should ease, but domestic lending rates are bottoming out and are unlikely to be pushed much lower. 

• A ~3% Fed funds rate would be a favorable window for reputable banks/corporates to tap international funding, potentially with DFI support (ADB/IFC, etc.). 

🔹 Banking Performance: 

• Current CAR levels are viewed as low; without injections, state-owned banks risk losing market share over time. 

• NPLs not yet alarming but could deteriorate without stronger capital; liquidity weakening in overall. 

• Digital transformation and non-interest income (payments/fees/remittances/credit cards) support efficiency (CTI) and investor appeal, though underlying vulnerabilities persist. 

🔹 Banks' Capital Raising Plan: 

• Continued Tier-2 issuance plus new equity – particularly for SOCBs – is encouraged to sustain growth and meet buffers. 

• Recent and upcoming measures (e.g., Circular 14) push more risk-adjusted capital management; the state-ownership roadmap in banks needs clarity (dilution vs. budget injections). 

• With funding rates trending lower, expand international market access – and pair issuance with external verification/ratings to improve reception. 

🔹 Rating & Pricing: 

• International bank ratings are mostly B/BB (some single-B) – need for raising in the international debt market but limited for domestic capital market as lack of credit differentiation among banks and versus non-bank issuers. 

• fb88 currently have a rating coverage of 8 banks with ratings well diverse from AA+ to BB under the domestic scale. A yield of ~6-6.5% (3-year, VND) is a practical pricing reference today for bank-bond with rating AA and A category while it can be lower for AAA ratings.  

• Transparency and stronger capitalization are essential to manage turbulence and keep spreads contained; foreign investors are watching capital adequacy and the credit-vs-deposit growth gap closely. 

Mr. Thuan underlined the need for banks to strengthen equity capital, issue long-term debt, and restructure funding to reduce reliance on short-term borrowings. He further highlighted that digital transformation, combined with data-driven strategies and partnerships with independent analytics firms such as fb88 and FiinGroup, will help banks plan capital more proactively and align with international standards. 

With over 17 years of experience in Vietnam’s capital market, FiinGroupandfb88 provide a comprehensive data and credit analytics ecosystem that helps banks and corporates enhance transparency, manage risks, and access capital effectively. Solutions such as FiinScore+ (corporate credit scoring), EWS (early warning system), and Credit Rating Services enable financial institutions to optimize capital structure, strengthen financial capacity, and build investor confidence – a key foundation as the banking sector transitions from rapid growth to greater resilience. 

👉DOWNLOAD THE FULL PRESENTATION HERE

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Explore fb88’ Solutions for Banks: 

▪️Credit Ratings Services 
▪️Investor Services: Company Credit Assessment; Sector Credit Research; and Portfolio Credit Monitoring  
▪️Sustainable Finance Services 

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